Abstract

Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, China's macroeconomic operation has generally shown the general law of cyclical fluctuations, and successfully realized the transformation from the classical cycle before the reform and opening up to the growth cycle after the reform and opening up. Among them, it not only benefits from the enormous impetus brought by the improvement of economic system and the in-creasing level of globalization, but also is closely related to the continuous improvement of independent innovation ability and the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure. However, since General Secretary Xi Jinping first put forward that China's economy was in the“new normal”stage during his visit to Henan Province in May 2014, the economic development has gradually entered a new period of institu-tional transformation, structural transformation and speed-up shift. In addition, the unpredictable international political and economic situation in recent years has formed the background of coexistence of“danger and opportunity”. On the one hand, the report of the Nineteenth National Congress clearly points out that there are still a series of outstanding problems in the current domestic economic development, such as unbal-anced, inadequate and uncoordinated development, low quality and efficiency of development, inadequate innovation capacity and the need to improve the level of the real economy. On the other hand, on April 10, 2018, General Secretary Xi gave a systematic explanation of the international economic situation at the Boao Forum for Asia, that is,“Looking at the world, the world is undergoing a new round of great development, change and adjustment, and there are still many unstable and uncertain factors facing mankind. A new round of technological and industrial revolution has brought new opportunities and unprecedented challenges to the development of human society. Then, at the Central Economic Working Conference from December 19 to 21，2018, it was clearly pointed out that macroeconomic policies should strengthen the policy orientation of counter-cyclical adjustment, thus putting forward higher require-ments for accelerating the study of the economic cycle. In view of this, this paper attempts to clarify the stage of social development and the course of economic cycle evolution in New China, through exploring the evolution mechanism of the new China's economic cycle, to further study the influencing factors and fluctuating trends of the new China's economic cycle evolution, with a view to providing meaningful reference for the construction of a systematic and complete counter-cyclical economic policy sys-tem in the new era.

This study attempts to use the philosophical thought of Marx's dialectical materialism as a guide, and draws on the analysis of the methodological research, volatility description, volatility interpretation, theory construction, reality detection, modification method, revision of the interpretation of volatility and its analysis theory. According to the logical paradigm of“knowing the world”to“reforming the world”. The full text contains nine chapters. The first two chapters are introduction, theoretical basis and literature review. As the basic part of the article, the paper mainly introduces the historical evolution process and research status of economic cycle theory. The third chapter is the analysis of the mechanism of China's economic cycle e-volution. This chapter belongs to the theoretical part of the full text. Based on the re-recognition of the evolution of the new China's economic cycle, it constructs a theoretical analysis framework for the evolution mechanism of the new China's economic cycle. The fourth chapter is the investigation of the evolution of the specific economic cycle. It reveals the historical process of the cyclical fluctuations of China's economy from the short, medium, medium and long periods and passes through the United States, Britain, and Japan. The evolution of the economic cycle is compared to explore the gener-ality and particularity of China's economic cycle fluctuations. The fifth chapter is a detailed study on the factors affecting the economic cycle. From the three aspects of insti-tutional reform, opening up and technological innovation, the paper deeply discusses the impact of various factors on the evolution of China's economic cycle. The sixth chapter is based on the conclusions of the fifth chapter, and the corresponding models are constructed to predict the short-term and long-term trends of China's economic cycle evolution in the new era. The seventh chapter summarizes the changes in the countercyclical policies of the United States, Britain and Japan after the Second World War and the evolution of the countercyclical policies since China's reform and opening up, sums up the experience and lessons of the international countercyclical policy, and concludes that the eighth chapter is China's countercyclical economy. Provide ref-erence for the construction and application of policies. The ninth chapter is the sum-mary and research outlook. On the whole, the structure of each chapter and each part of the full text is closely linked and progressive.

Through the above analysis, this paper mainly draws the following conclusions:（1）The evolution mechanism of the New China economic cycle is mainly reflected in the“three-in-one”time-space conversion. Through the“matching”between the stage of social development and the stage of economic cycle in New China, this paper finds that the changes in China's economic and social development stage and the evolution of the economic cycle have shown a clear coupling since the founding of New China, and the evolution mechanism of the new China's economic cycle. It is mainly embodied in the“three-in-one”transformation of time and space, that is, the political cycle, the internal adjustment cycle of the economic mechanism, and the innovation cycle. The three types of economic cycles are unified in the whole process of economic and social development in New China, and they are also prominent in the political cycle before the reform and opening up. In order to lead the internal evolutionary cycle of the eco-nomic mechanism after the reform and opening up to the new era, the law of internal evolution dominated by the innovation cycle㊣4㊣4“Chinese cycle”evolution law.（2）There is both generality and particularity between the evolution of the New China eco-nomic cycle and the evolution of the economic cycles of Western developed countries. On the one hand, the general emphasis is on the economic cycle of both China and Western developed countries, including short-term, medium-period, medium-long and long-term cycles. The combination of these four cycles forms the evolution of the mac-roeconomic cycle. On the other hand, the particularity is mainly reflected in the evolu-tion characteristics and evolution trend of the medium and long period and the long pe-riod. For example, the adjustment of the four industrial structures since the founding of New China has brought about a significant increase in the average GDP growth rate. With the diminishing effect of the“first demographic dividend”, the role of“second demographic dividend”and“high-precision”talents began to increase. In addition, after the 1990s, China's scientific and technological innovation level has significantly improved, and there are also problems such as the“deformation”of the innovation structure.（3）The influencing factors of the economic cycle of New China include both domestic factors and foreign factors, including both demand side and supply side factors, but the overall effect is the comprehensive effect of the“institutional+open+innovation”development model. First, since the founding of New China 70 years ago, the primary factor affecting the cyclical fluctuations of China's economy is investment volatility, and the change of investment volatility is reflected in three aspects: invest-ment source power, investment form and investment flow change. Second, Since the reform and opening up, the consumption level has become the second most important factor affecting economic fluctuations, and the population dependency ratio is also one of the main factors. Third, the institutional factors can explain about 30% of the eco-nomic cycle fluctuations in New China, and the institutional changes mainly follow the influence of micro, meso and macro. The logical path is ultimately reflected in macro-economic fluctuations、Fourth, the contribution rate of the United States and Japan to the Chinese economy is roughly 20%, and Japan is higher than the United States. China's economic contribution to the United States and Japan is even higher, especially China's economic contribution rate to Japan can reach 30%. Fifth, there is a strong correlation between China's technological innovation and economic growth, and it is more prosperous than in recession. The degree of relevance is higher.（4）In the new era, although China is still facing severe economic downward pressure in the short term, it is highly probable that it will achieve innovation, coordination, green, openness and shared development in the long run.（5）The choice and application of China's counter-cyclical policy in the new era must proceed from China's national con-ditions. Through the review of the evolution of the three representative developed coun-tries of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan, after the Second World War and the counter-cyclical economic policies after China's reform and opening up, the paper finds that the moderate and effective intervention of the government is the primary prerequisite for implementing countercyclical economic policies; the short-term stimulus plan on the demand side needs to be tailor-made according to the nation-al conditions. Third, the supply-side structural reform is the key choice for realizing long-term sustainable economic development. Fourth, promoting high-quality develop-ment is the only way to enhance the country's competitive advantage.

Throughout the study of this paper, we focus on four aspects of innovation:First, the evolution mechanism of the New China economic cycle is highlighted by the“three-in-one”transformation process. After reviewing the historical data of New China's economic data and the reality of economic and social development, this paper shows that although the decision of the periodic pattern may depend on the mutual al-location of factors in the economic system in different periods from the perspective of a single economic cycle, the economy since the founding of New China The overall evolution mechanism of the cycle presents a dynamic evolution process, the“three-in-one”time-space transformation process. At the same time, the author refers to this law as the evolution of the“Chinese cycle”, which is also the main innovation point of this article. Second, the unique development model of New China's“institution+open+ innovation”inherently defines the cyclical evolution mechanism of the“trinity”space-time transformation. Through the research, the author thinks that the influencing factors of the economic cycle of New China have both domestic and foreign factors, in-cluding both the demand side factor and the supply side factor, but the overall effect is the comprehensive effect of the“institutional + open + innovation”development model. In other words, the economic development model of“institution+open+inno-vation”also internally stipulates the cyclical evolution mechanism of the“trinity”of the new China. Third, although the new era is still facing severe economic downward pressure in the short term, it is highly probable that it will achieve innovation, coordi-nation, green, openness and shared development in the long run. By using the entropy method and the equal weighting method to predict the trend of the inter-provincial eco-nomic development quality during the“13th Five-Year Plan”period and the“14th Five-Year Plan”period, we find that the quality of China's inter-provincial economic development is showing up in the new era. At the same time, although the inter-pro-vincial heterogeneity will still exist, the equal weighting method that reflects the overall development will facilitate the effective mitigation of differences.